Forecasting Covid Test Demand for the UK [Complete]

I worked for the UK Health Security Agency from 2021–2022, focusing on forecasting national COVID-19 test demand. This was a unique challenge, involving making predictions of infections over time, public testing behaviour, positivity rates, and new variants. During this period, multiple Omicron variants came and went, the UK government lifted restrictions, and free testing was restricted to the most vulnerable populations.

Some of the more interesting problems we had to adapt to included:

• Predicting changes in how likely people are to test in reponse to government and press announcements
• Developing forecasts of positive tests to aid contact-tracing measures
• Developing long term (1-year) infection and demand scenarios with limited historical data or government forecasts to align to
• Integrating short-term forecasts with long-term infection scenarios